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hawke.ai black friday outlook
November 29, 2024 - By Barron Rosborough

Hawke.ai Black Friday Outlook

This Thanksgiving, the story of digital advertising unfolded differently across Facebook, Google, and TikTok. Each platform told its own tale of triumphs and challenges, revealing how businesses adapted to shifting consumer behaviors. From TikTok’s unexpected surge in ad spend efficiency to Facebook and Google’s struggles to maintain their footing, the data paints a vivid picture of evolving trends. By diving into key metrics like Cost Per Click (CPC) and Cost Per Lead (CPL), this analysis uncovers the highs and lows of year-over-year performance. Through these insights, we explore what worked, what didn’t, and what these shifts mean for shaping future campaigns.

Thanksgiving 2023 vs. 2024 Analysis

Meta Ads

Key Changes

  1. CPC (Cost Per Click): 
    1. 2023: $1.66
    2. 2024: Decreased by 18.67% from $1.66 in 2023 to $1.35 in 2024, indicating better cost efficiency in driving clicks.
  2. CPL (Cost Per Lead): 
    1. 2023: $19.13
    2. 2024: Increased by 45.90% from $19.13 to $27.91, showing rising lead acquisition costs in 2024.
  3. CPM (Cost Per Million): 
    1. 2023: $18.31
    2. 2024: Increased slightly by 2.95% from $18.31 to $18.85, reflecting stable impression costs.
  4. CTR (Click-Through Rate): 
    1. 2023: 0.98%
    2. 2024: Improved significantly by 47.96% from 0.98% to 1.45%, indicating better ad engagement in 2024.

7-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  • CPC: $1.18 (+7.71% from the 14-day ramp-up).
  • CPL: $19.89 (+8.39%), reflecting rising competition and costs to convert leads.
  • CPM: $16.95 (+9.03%), showing higher demand for impressions closer to Thanksgiving.
  • CTR: 1.37% (-0.16%), relatively stable engagement rates.

14-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  • CPC: $1.09, offering the most cost-efficient period to drive clicks.
  • CPL: $18.35, lower than the 7-day ramp-up, indicating an opportunity for early lead generation.
  • CPM: $15.54, reflecting lower competition for impressions earlier in the period.
  • CTR: 1.37%, consistent engagement over the two-week period.

Insights & Recommendations

Thanksgiving Day 2024

  1. Maximize CTR Performance: With a 47.96% improvement, ensure ad creative leverage engaging formats like video or carousel ads.
  2. Lead Cost Management: High CPL in 2024 highlights the need for refined audience segmentation and optimized landing pages.

7-Day Ramp-Up

  1. Budget for Higher Competition: Rising CPC and CPM (+7.71% and +9.03%) signal intense demand; allocate budget to focus on high-performing campaigns.
  2. Engagement Consistency: CTR remains stable; focus on retargeting and personalization to drive conversions.

14-Day Ramp-Up

  1. Launch Early Campaigns: Lower CPC and CPL during this period offer a chance to generate leads cost-effectively before competition intensifies.
  2. Impression Costs: Use this time to maximize reach at lower CPM rates.

 

Google Ads

Key Metrics

  • CPC (Cost Per Click):
      • 2023: $1.19
      • 2024: $1.01 (-15.13%), reflecting reduced costs for clicks in 2024.
  • CPL (Cost Per Lead):
      • 2023: $14.07
      • 2024: $16.80 (+19.39%), showing increased costs to acquire leads.
  • CPM (Cost Per Million):
      • 2023: $22.47
      • 2024: $18.95 (-15.67%), indicating more affordable impressions.
  • CTR (Click-Through Rate):
    • 2023: 1.93%
    • 2024: 2.42% (+25.39%), highlighting improved engagement.

7-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  1. CPC: $0.97, slightly lower than the 14-day period ($0.96, +1.27%).
  2. CPL: $17.05, slightly higher than the 14-day period ($16.80, +1.51%).
  3. CPM: $17.62, nearly unchanged from the 14-day period ($17.66, -0.22%).
  4. CTR: 2.07%, a marginal improvement over the 14-day period (2.06%, +0.91%).

14-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  1. CPC: $0.96, reflecting cost efficiency in driving clicks earlier.
  2. CPL: $16.80, slightly lower than the 7-day period.
  3. CPM: $17.66, indicating stable impression costs over the two weeks.
  4. CTR: 2.06%, consistent engagement across the two weeks.

Insights & Recommendations

Thanksgiving Day 2024

  1. Maximize CTR Performance: A 25.39% improvement shows strong audience engagement; optimize creative formats to sustain momentum.
  2. Monitor CPL: With an 19.39% increase, evaluate lead generation strategies, especially for form optimizations.

7-Day and 14-Day Ramp-Ups

  1. Prioritize Early Campaigns: CPC and CPL remain cost-efficient during the 14-day ramp-up. Use this window to generate leads and clicks before competition peaks.
  2. Optimize Budgets for CTR Gains: Improved CTR during both ramp-up periods suggests opportunities for stronger engagement with engaging creative.

TikTok Ads

Key Metrics

  • CPC (Cost Per Click):
      • 2023: $1.09
      • 2024: $1.05 (-3.67%), indicating a slight decrease in cost per click.
  • CPL (Cost Per Lead):
      • 2023: $5.41
      • 2024: $3.58 (-33.83%), suggesting a significant reduction in lead acquisition costs.
  • CPM (Cost Per Million):
      • 2023: $3.71
      • 2024: $3.24 (-12.67%), reflecting lower costs to reach 1,000 impressions.
  • CTR (Click-Through Rate):
    • 2023: 0.63%
    • 2024: 0.57% (-9.52%), indicating a slight decline in engagement.

7-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  1. CPC: $0.99, slightly lower than the 14-day period ($1.01, -2.05%).
  2. CPL: $0.60, significantly better than the 14-day period ($1.53, -60.41%).
  3. CPM: $7.78, nearly unchanged compared to the 14-day period ($7.97, -2.39%).
  4. CTR: 0.67%, a minor drop from the 14-day period (0.68%, -2.61%).

14-Day Ramp-Up (2024)

Performance

  1. CPC: $1.01, showing cost efficiency in driving clicks earlier in the ramp-up period.
  2. CPL: $1.53, higher than the 7-day ramp-up, but still affordable compared to Thanksgiving Day.
  3. CPM: $7.97, stable impression costs over the 14 days.
  4. CTR: 0.68%, consistent engagement across the ramp-up period.

Insights & Recommendations

Thanksgiving Day 2024

  1. Monitor CTR Decline: A 9.52% drop suggests the need for enhanced ad creative to sustain engagement.
  2. Lower CPL Advantage: Reduced lead acquisition costs (-33.83%) offer an opportunity to scale lead generation efforts.

7-Day and 14-Day Ramp-Ups

  1. Efficient Lead Generation: CPL drops dramatically in the 7-day period (-60.41%). Leverage this window for affordable conversions.
  2. CTR Consistency: CTR remains stable; ensure high-quality creative to maintain engagement across all periods.