What the 2025 TV Upfronts Reveal About Advertising in the Age of Tariffs
When the biggest names in media throw glitzy parties in Midtown Manhattan to pitch ad space, there’s usually an air of confidence—even bravado. But this year’s TV upfronts come with a chill in the air, and it’s not the AC inside Radio City Music Hall.
Between rising tariffs, consumer pullback, and an oversaturated media landscape, the curtain has lifted on a truth performance marketers have known for years: the old way of buying media is losing its edge. And in a fragmented, demand-driven economy, agility—not legacy—wins.
At Hawke Media, where we’ve helped scale over 5,000 brands through turbulent markets, we see the 2025 upfront season not as a death knell for TV, but as a case study in why marketers must think more like investors and less like event planners.
Tariffs and Tightening Belts: Why TV Is Vulnerable
The headlines point to a perfect storm: inflationary pressure from tariffs, plummeting consumer confidence, and a murky economic outlook. It’s no wonder some major brands are pulling back spend—one CPG brand trimming 7%, a financial services firm cutting 15%. These aren’t marketing “reallocations.” They’re defensive moves in a volatile economy.
But here’s the thing: TV—especially traditional linear—is inherently inflexible. Upfronts lock you into high-dollar commitments before the market moves. In contrast, platforms like Amazon, YouTube, and Meta offer dynamic, performance-based options with built-in attribution and real-time pivots.
That’s why Hershey is shifting 15% of its cable TV spend to Amazon and YouTube, as reported in the Wall Street Journal article. The move isn’t just about reach—it’s about proof. Amazon can tie ad impressions to cart conversions. YouTube owns more living room time than most networks. Why gamble with TV’s promise of “eventual reach” when digital delivers ROI today?
Why Performance Will Eat Prestige for Breakfast
When media buyers get spooked by economic uncertainty, the question becomes: What’s actually working? And increasingly, that answer doesn’t come from glitzy upfront stages or celebrity cameos. It comes from dashboards, sales lift, and customer lifetime value.
What we’re seeing across Hawke Media clients is a consistent trend: demand-driven marketing—across paid social, email, SEO, influencer, and UGC—is not only more efficient but more resilient when macro headwinds hit. One of our CPG clients recently reallocated a third of their TV budget to TikTok and influencer-led content. The result? A 5x return on ad spend during an otherwise slow quarter.
And they’re not alone. According to eMarketer, advanced TV ad spend is projected to fall 20.5% this year to $13.9 billion, while digital video (particularly short-form and shoppable media) continues to climb.
This isn’t to say TV is dead. But in its current form, it’s increasingly a luxury buy in a utility-driven market.
Streaming’s Fragmentation Is Not a Fix—It’s a Filter
Media companies are pinning their hopes on streaming. But with every platform launching its own ad tier, the audience is splintering faster than budgets can keep up. You used to be able to buy NBC primetime and hit 10 million viewers. Now, that same audience is watching 30 different shows on 10 different platforms.
As Brian Wieser put it in the WSJ, “[TV networks and streamers] can’t grow fast enough to make up for the money leaving TV.” He’s right. We’re not watching the evolution of media—we’re witnessing its unbundling.
That’s why Hawke leans into omnichannel orchestration: you don’t chase where your audience is going—you build a presence where they already are. If that’s Instagram Reels this quarter, fine. If it’s CTV next quarter, also fine. Flexibility is the strategy.
Check out how we helped Funko build a cross-platform launch strategy for their “Pop Yourself” campaign, optimizing messaging across digital, retail, and earned media in a matter of weeks.
Sports as the Last Fortress? Maybe. But Not for Long.
The one consistent lifeline for TV? Sports. The NFL, NBA, and Olympics still offer aggregated, appointment-based audiences. But even those waters are churning.
YouTube owns NFL Sunday Ticket. Netflix is airing live events. Amazon Prime broadcasts Thursday Night Football. The sports media ecosystem is migrating—and so are the dollars.
For brands, this means it’s time to stop thinking in terms of networks and start thinking in terms of access. Who owns the eyeballs now? Who has the attribution tools to prove it? That’s your ad buy.
The New Buying Criteria for CMOs
As a fractional CMO partner for hundreds of businesses, Hawke Media advises clients to evaluate media buys with three modern filters:
- Attribution – Can you tie spend to performance in real time?
- Agility – Can you pivot if market conditions or consumer behaviors change?
- Access – Does this channel give you direct access to your customer—without reliance on third-party data?
TV still has a role to play—but not at the center. It’s now a satellite in a media solar system where digital, social, and owned content are gravitational centers.
Final Thought: Media Buying in a “Tariff Era”
Whether or not tariffs cool consumer spending long-term, they’ve already done something else: exposed the fragility of legacy media buying. CMOs who overcommit to linear or even siloed streaming inventory risk locking up budget in vanity metrics.
The brands who will win in this new era? They’re not just reallocating—they’re reinventing how they plan, place, and prove every dollar.